Our group of HoCo loco politico wonks gathered again last evening at a local pub. As before, it was a diverse collection of political moderates that is pretty well in tune with the HoCo politico scene with strong opinions and some insiders insight. The ground rules were still in effect, we could freely share what was discussed but the participants would remain anonymous.
The governors race kicked things off. Despite the recent polls showing Martin O'Malley now leading Bob Ehrlich by almost two digits, the general feeling was that Ehrlich would still carry HoCo by perhaps not by as a big a margin he'll need to win the state. This has a direct relation to the District 1 county council race.
The HoCo Repub insiders feel that District 1 is their best hope for gaining another council seat. Though it was generally acknowledged that Courtney Watson is the better candidate, Bob Flanagan stands a chance of unseating her based solely on party affiliation. The theory is that if Bob Ehrlich carries District 1with a significant margin the other Bob will ride in on his coattails.
In the District 3 council race the consensus was that Dennis Schrader wins if the turnout is low. All agreed that Jen Terresa has run a lackluster campaign but in this deep blue district any Dem, even a relatively weak one, has a huge advantage.
The last time this group got together most of the participants felt that Jody Venkatesan would beat Kyle Lorton in the Repub primary. That of course didn't happen and now the consensus is that Jim Robey will win reelection in District 13. The House of Delegates race in that district looks pretty good for the incumbents too with the possible exception of Frank Turner. The only Repub with an outside chance in this race is Ed Priola who was widely acknowledged as the hardest working man in loco politics.
As the the second round of drinks started we touched on the school board race. The big news is that the HoCo Repub establishment is dropping Brian Meshkin like a bad habit and throwing their support behind Bob Ballinger. It is widely expected that Bob Erhlich will endorse Bob as soon as this week. This could significantly impact what some believe is Brians long range political plan to run for Greg Fox's seat in 2014 and eventual world domination.
A Reason to Fear
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