Saturday, October 30, 2010

Good Forecast for Dems

This morning, as I was running errands in Columbia and listening to Wait Wait Don’t Tell Me on WAMU, I heard that rain on election day hurts the Dems more than Repubs.

When I got home I did a little research on the web and came across this story by Bill Adair on Bill cites a study that “found that 1 inch of rain reduces overall turnout by slightly less than 1 percent and cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.”

“Rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share,” said Brad Gomez, a visiting professor of political science at the University of Georgia who co-authored the study. “That’s a fairly sizeable swing.”

Local Dems can breathe a sigh of relief. The current forecast for Tuesday calls for a sunny day with temps in the fifties. Then again, this is Maryland where weather prognostication is often a fools game.
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