Sunday, April 18, 2010

A Tough Slog Uphill

Last Thursday I attended John Bailey’s fundraiser at Oakland in Town Center. John is attempting to unseat Liz Bobo for the District 12B House of Delegates seat. Though one may get the impression from reading local blogs that Liz is vulnerable the reality on the street is far different. John Bailey faces a tough uphill slog.

To say the attendance at his event was tepid would be an understatement. I arrived a little around 5:30 PM for the Happy Hour event that started at 5:00 PM. I was the second person there. By the time I left an hour later there were still less than 10 attendees and that included Larry Carson and John’s special guest, former County Executive Chuck Ecker.

I realize that it is still very early in the campaign season but right now John Bailey’s prospects look pretty bleak. John is a nice, sincere guy but unless he is able to somehow ignite more enthusiasm for his candidacy Liz will almost certainly hold onto her seat.

Opponents of Liz’s left leaning anti development politics are faced with two choices; either they coalesce behind Bailey or recruit another candidate to challenge her. Time is running out. The deadline for filing is July 6th.


Anonymous said...

I keep telling you all to talk to people outside of your own circles. Not everyone is a pro bailout TBTF Chamber cheerleader. Get 10 registered voters on the phone randomly and you'll hear not a single one with the majority opinions in these blogs. Get 10,000 on the phone and you'll have maybe, maybe 8 that hold your views.

And that, blogger friends, is WHY TBTF and other powerful gluttons NEED to contribute thousands to campaign war chests. If the money field, ie., marketing expenditures were level you wouldn't stand a snowball's chance at getting your mouthpieces hired on as pseudo-representatives.

Anonymous said...

I think it's less about a particular than the people. You all grossly overestimate the engagement of the average voter. The average voter in HC knows who is there and is rarely given a strong enough reason to vote against them and for an unknown.

Here, incumbents will rule the day in all but a few races on the state level where people don't know the incumbents very well (Miller).

Anonymous said...

WB, remember that the last person to beat Mz Liz was Chuck Ecker in 1990. No one thought he had a chance either. But, with the right message and lots of persistence, as well as good timing and some luck, anything is possible. John Bailey is the only one with the GUTS to take on Mz Liz. If you can find someone else, have at it. But, for now, John Bailey is by far the best bet to beat Mz Liz, even if that means Bailey wins because people voted AGAINST Mz Liz.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if all of the folks who claim to have concerns about Liz will realy work for him. Also, how will this campaign impact Sigaty?

Anonymous said...

Was it $100 bucks a head to attend? That alone goes a long way to explaining the sparse attendance given the state of the economy. He has a couple hundred supporters on facebook.

Anonymous said...

I've got it made. I live in Howard County. My kids go to great schools. The cops keep the riff-raff off. My roads get plowed when it snows.

I own a million dollar house a Hummer.

I'm fat. I'm a Howard County Democrat.

Why would I want things to change?